JULY 24, 2026 – A common factual presumption is that the party holding the White House suffers a loss of Congressional seats in mid-term elections. In fact, over the past century, the party in control of the White House has lost House seats in 22 out of 25 mid-term elections and has lost House and Senate seats in 15 out of those 25 elections.
Given the historical mid-term electoral pattern, the razor thin margins in both House and Senate should cause the party of Trump to run doubly scared about losing control of both chambers come this November. What, with (1) the self-inflicted fiasco of Trump’s “skirmish” with Iran and its cost beyond $100 billion plus high gas prices, food prices, and everything else prices (effectively wiping out many times whatever savings might’ve been achieved by DOGE (remember “waste, fraud and abuse”?); (2) the “affordability” issue faced daily by 10s of millions of Americans but mocked by Trump; (3) a sex scandal of epic proportions that just won’t go away; and (4) grift, corruption and narcissism on an imponderably gargantuan scale . . . to name a few issues that in normal circumstances would lead to wholesale electoral disaster . . . one would think that the American people should be poised to “throw the House and Senate rascals out” by an overwhelming majority.
But these are not normal circumstances. Sure, the cult leader’s approval ratings have slid markedly since the day he took office. People are upset with the state of affairs, particularly in the arena of the pocketbook. But polls suggest that at this point, the mid-terms won’t be a Democratic blow-out. Reasons are as numerous as the political commentators who peddle them, and in this day of the social media platform, nearly all of us have become published politicos. Among the explanations for the likelihood of a close election are (a) “the Democrats can’t get their act together”; and (b) The American political stage has never been dominated by such an unrepentant, Teflon cult leader of nonsense.
Meanwhile, what is the mercurial Mr. Trump thinking? And what is the man with no apparent aptitude for strategic planning going to do about the mid-term elections?
Last week he gave it to us straight up: he’s going to undermine the electoral process. Even before his loss in 2020, Trump worked in earnest to get people to believe our election system is open to fraud; that the results (unfavorable to him, at least) are suspect. After his loss was established fact, he launched a litigation and influence campaign to advance his baseless claim of fraud. It was all a big ruse, but he knew that if he made enough of an issue of it, “voter fraud” could become a rallying cry. Once enough people were on board with Trump’s assertions of fraud and election irregularities, embrace of “election denialism” could be used as a simple loyalty test: “Do you think Joe Biden stole the election?” Anything but a solid “Yes!” put you at risk of political castration by the cult leader. And off to the races Republicans went, trampling election integrity on the way.
The irony, of course, is that the biggest fraud of all was Trump’s lying insistence that his loss in 2020 was in fact a win.
That was Phase I. Now we are well into Phase II of Trump’s election fraud: Use the “fake issue” to justify legislation suppressing voting. Dressed up in “How can you argue with requiring people to identify themselves?”, the effort targeted traditionally Democratic voters—people of color; people economically marginalized; people for whom obtaining the requisite identification is no easy task. Hatched from the mold of “election fraud,” voter suppression would backfill where assertions of fraud weren’t selling well.
On a parallel track with Phase II is Phase III: fire experts and staff in government responsible for election security and preventing foreign and domestic interference with the electoral process. Then, openly advertise this step to the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, and others who would interfere with our elections. In addition, under Phase III, remind Americans that election fraud is lurking in every corner of the Republic, ready to pounce. Plant, water, fertilize the mantra that we face a collusive threat among many dark forces, who are determined to undermine the results of the mid-terms.
Phase IV: Based not on hard facts, but on pure fabrications tied to Phase III or on actual (invited) incidents of interference, unleash Todd Blanche—officially the Attorney General of the United States, but in reality, Trump’s de facto consigliere—to badger, accuse, investigate, even prosecute, election officials who do not deliver the “right results.”
It is by his own election fraud, his own election interference that Trump will find his way out of the “skirmish” in Iran, side-step his abysmal record on innumerable domestic fronts, and last but hardly least, avoid accountability in the Epstein sex scandal. Desperate people do desperate things. They are most dangerous when they are cornered. And in his war with Iran, certainly, Trump is cornered.
We have reason to fear what will come next: full strangulation of American democracy by Trump to avoid being a “loser.” All of which assumes, of course, that at 80 and not looking well, he isn’t incapacitated before the November mid-terms. The catch, however, is this: In November, America wins only if the party of Trump loses.
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© 2026 by Eric Nilsson
