NOVEMBER 3, 2020 – Polling is still our main method of predicting election outcomes. Back in the day we had only two national polls—the Gallup Poll and the Harris Poll. Now, of course, polls are too numerous to list. After the debacle of 2016, pollsters’ credibility suffered, and everyone’s skittish about placing too much reliance on poll results.
The least reliable polls this time around seem to be the ones published by Democratic campaigns. Projected ties or at best, one- or two-point leads, are designed to stir Democratic voters to action. The tactic has worked in our household, where the prospect of a Democrat-sweep (or fear of the opposite), combined with the ease of making a contribution, has led to a generous number of donations. I doubt a double-digit spread, up or down, would’ve led to the same level or frequency of contributions.
Actually, the least reliable polls are the ones favored by Donald Trump. In classic “Naked Emperor” fashion, he denigrates painful truth in favor of sycophantic nonsense. This will finally prove to be his undoing.
I must confess that in predicting the outcome of the voting that ends today, I rely on a mix of scientific and unscientific methods.
I rely on polls, of course, but also the historic voter turnout, which, by all statistical measures, favors Democrats. When I see the numbers of young people and people of color voting I’m hopeful that the Republican over-reach of the past four years has stirred an historic backlash.
My unscientific methods of predicting a Democratic sweep run the gamut. For example, before sunlight filled the room this morning, what color underwear did I pull randomly from my randomly packed travel bag? Blue! (Admittedly, this is hardly a scientific predictor, given that I don’t own any red underwear, and disregarded altogether is the fact that I’m up here at the Red Cabin.)
Another unscientific method is dream interpretation. In 2016, I had a fitful sleep the night before Election Day. I had no dreams because I had no sleep. This time around? I slept like a rock, and my dreams were pleasant and untroubled (I was skiing, then hiking, surrounded by beautiful scenery). I also dreamt about an encounter with my old boss, years ago, at the bank. He was awarding me a promotion and asked what line of business I wanted to manage—a highly speculative, unproven venture bound to fail or a “sure bet.” I chose the latter, and when I woke up, I convinced myself that the “sure bet” meant Biden wins.
But here’s the kicker. On my drive up to the Red Cabin Sunday, I passed a “rustic” home in front of which was parked a gigantic mud-rally truck–the kind requiring an extension ladder for access to the cab. Tied to the side of the truck was an equally huge banner, which predicts today’s outcome better than any method I’ve encountered. Sandwiched between “TRUMP” and “2020” were the words, “No more bullshit.”
We have a BINGO!
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© 2020 by Eric Nilsson
