DECEMBER 9, 2021 – Recently I gained some investment guidance and insight into politics when I visited . . . the doctor.
After dispensing with medical advice my doc answered a general question about the Omicron variant. He’s highly educated, well-read, well-informed. In both mainstream media and medical literature, he’d read the latest news on “O.” Significantly, his initial assessment was that Omicron wouldn’t be as serious as Delta, and perhaps, he surmised, Omicron has a silver lining. “It’s possible,” he said, “that it’ll render Covid-19 more contagious but with lower morbidity, as in the case of seasonal flu—still a threat but not leading to widespread lockdowns or mandates.”
Then came the zinger: “Already, equity markets are up.”
My doc, educated in India and a connoisseur of Western classical music, is “not about the money.” He didn’t pursue a practice at our regional healthcare provider to make gobs of dough. In my judgment, he’s a model general practitioner, genuinely interested in the well-being of his patients, not the least bit full of himself, committed to making the world a better place, and an astute student of subjects that his curious mind encounters.
My doc’s comment, however, led to a discussion about how to gauge information. We agreed that beyond the realm of science, investor reaction is often a good measure of what’s happening and . . . what’s not.
When the pandemic first roared out of Wuhan, I thought, “There goes the economy!” Fortunately, I didn’t act on that any more than I had after the election of You-Know-Who. In both instances, but most particularly after the pandemic swung into full gear, I was pessimistic about the global and national economies. “A deadly, world contagion at the time a clown is leader of the U.S.?!” I thought and said aloud. “We’re looking at Doomsday!”
The good doctor provided epiphanic insight. If I’m a nervous squirrel, the professional investor class (with the aid of technology way beyond my meager appreciation) studies data poured through a global information filtration system and reaches conclusions less pessimistic than mine.
None of which suggests that finance people are more prescient than the rest of humanity, but because investors have lots of bucks on the line, they’re not self-restricted in their analyses of what’s happening and . . . what’s not.
The best investment advice I’ve received is, “Don’t let your politics influence your investment decisions.” However much I’ve concluded that our glorious national history is a sardine can wrapped in red, white, and blue paper but containing lots of spoiled fish, I must acknowledge that markets don’t see imminent collapse, revolution, or destruction of the system as we find it.
Do I wish something better for our country and the world? Of course but the packs of cigarettes (including such brands as, “Covid-19,” “Climate Change,” “Wealth Inequality,” “Vote Republican: Make January 6 a National Holiday”) we smoke won’t kill all of us off quite yet. You can bet on our survival . . . unless and until equity markets, Treasurys, and investment grade debt all crash and burn—no survivors.
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© 2021 by Eric Nilsson
