OCTOBER 24, 2020 – With 10 days to go to Election Day, or more precisely “The Last Voting Day,” a CAT-5 political storm bears down on the nation. As we huddle in the face of fury, I predict an historic surge and obliteration.
FIRST: the winds pack three acute, determinative crises: 1. Covid, which threatens mostly people over 60; 2. The prospective loss of health insurance for millions of Americans; and 3. Financial destitution, mostly among young people. These three matters break decidedly for Democrats.
Trump’s complete failure on the Covid front and the latest surge in infection rates and deaths will drive (or have driven) more seniors to vote for Biden. This translates to a bumper crop of votes, since seniors historically have the best turnout record.
The looming loss of health care insurance ensuing from an adverse Supreme Court decision on the ACA underscores Republican over-reach in ramrodding senate confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett. This isn’t merely an ideological battle. It involves a bread-and-butter issue with enormous impact on individual lives. Accordingly, people in danger of losing insurance will have extra motivation to vote—Democratic.
Trump’s trumping of stock market performance is an affront to young people—most of whom have nothing vested in the stock market and who, in the face of un- and under-employment struggle to pay rent. Many of these people are beyond the heady days of “Bernie’s Revolution.” They’re more desperate than ever, and atop that, a good many are madder ’n hell over the slow pace of police reform and racial justice. Anger and desperation are motivating turnout among this demographic with traditionally low electoral participation. In fact . . .
SECOND, in four key states, the 18- to 29-yearolds have already blown the doors off early voting numbers in 2016. In Texas, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina, early voters in this age group have already surged by nearly 10 to 20 times their numbers in 2016. Their numbers favor Biden overwhelmingly over the Charlton President.
THIRD, speaking of which . . . Trump’s glaring deficiencies have turned off a significant number of people who have voted or will vote but had been hood-winked by his anti-establishment tactics in 2016. As Biden put it the other night, “You know who I am, and you know who [Trump] is.” Enough people in their right minds will run with that simple statement to give added surge to a blue wave.
The foregoing factors will overwhelm Republican attempts at voter suppression. That anti-democratic strategy is already back-firing as we observe the biggest early turnout in American history and people enduring hours-long waits in line.
Demographically this country favors Democrats overwhelmingly, but Republicans have cornered political power based on the overwhelming turnout among citizens who are drunk on Kool-Aid. By overplaying their hand and a strategy targeting a dwindling minority, Republicans have brought upon themselves a demographic storm. When the sun reappears, the party of Trump will have been washed out to sea. The rest of America can then begin the herculean task of rebuilding our democracy.
(Remember to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.)
© 2020 by Eric Nilsson
