JUNE 15, 2024 – As phrases come and go, “moving the needle” has exhibited unusual durability, perhaps because needle gauges continue to dominate studio soundboards and automobile dashboards. Yet, if my recollection is at all accurate, those kinds of gauges long preceded general use of the metaphor, “moving the needle” in reference to the effect of a given influence. I wonder, for example, how my favorite, Trotsky-look-alike history professor in college would’ve reacted if he’d encountered the phrase in one of my papers discussing the effect that Frederick Douglass had on Abolition.
As far as I can remember, I personally didn’t use the phrase until it acquired common currency 10 or 12 years ago. For some reason, “moving the needle” is now a gauge-phrase I apply to nearly every news story or headline I encounter. Hmmm, I think when visiting my information silos: Will this report or information “move the needle” regarding the issue that the item addresses, directly or implicitly?
For example: “Clarence Thomas is in the news again, and not in a way that elevates respect for the Court.” Will this running story “move the needle” with voters on Election Day? (Probably not, I conclude.) Or take the WAPO headline, “As [the Duly Defeated] turns 78 on Friday, his campaign is trying to paint 2024 rival President Joe Biden as mentally incompetent by distorting a moment from Biden’s trip overseas this week to the G7 summit that has gone viral on social media.” Does the underlying story (intentional distortion of a video clip) “move the needle” on the current polling gauges or does it play exclusively to people already so enthralled by the personality cult of a naked emperor that the “needle gauge” measures nothing except applause decibels in an echo chamber? (Again, I conclude—no change.)
Other factors, however, could “move the needle” ahead of November:
First could be developments on any number of well publicized fronts: the Southern Border; the Netanyahu vs. Sinwar conflict; Putin vs. Ukraine; trade with China; China’s designs on Taiwan.
Second are the numberless imponderable issues that could explode over November ballots; issues that currently elude the mainstream press, either because the issues are too complicated for social media posts or the problems are simmering below the surface of forefront reportage: potential viral outbreaks that could fast turn into pandemics; vulnerabilities of our power grid; security weaknesses in large-scale computer network systems; the competition between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile River flow; a blow-out terrorist attack by a Tajiki offshoot of ISIS, et cetera.
Third, a major health attack striking Biden or the Duly Defeated could send the “needle gauge” spinning wildly out of control.
In any event, however, movements in the “needle gauge” of national polling need to be measured within an overlay of the electoral college map. A hurricane on Election Day, for example, that vastly reduces voter turnout in the overwhelmingly red states of Florida and South Carolina might have less impact on electoral votes than a massive power outage on the same day in Milwaukee, Wisconsin or Phoenix, Arizona. Likewise, a jump of the needle in favor of Biden in the (already) reliably blue state of California might not be reflected in any movement of the needle in a “battleground” state such as Pennsylvania.
Lots could “move the needle” come November. The world—not just our polarized part of it—is susceptible to all sorts of game-changing developments over the next four-and-a-half months. The odds are that All Won’t be Quiet on the Western Front between now and November. Flashpoints and crises will certainly arise and abound, wreaking havoc on our current assumptions.
The probability remains, however, that our nation is so divided that no crisis, no surprise, no disaster would alter voter sentiments enough to “move the needle.” Our minds are made up, and thus the needles will flicker but never move between now and November.
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© 2024 by Eric Nilsson
