JUNE 16, 2020 – June’s half over. In 15 days, the year will be half over. Time for three prognostications about the rest of 2020. Two are based on business phone conversations I had yesterday; one turns on recent news stories about Trump.
The first conversation was with a banker client of mine. He’s in his early 60s, well read, an alumnus of the Peace Corps, equipped with a good sense of humor, and a serious student of Washington’s Farewell Speech. I’ll let you guess about his politics.
After talking biz yesterday, we talked economics. I asked his opinion about a legal/policy remedy I have for the next major real estate downturn. (He liked it—not the downturn but my proposed remedy.) I then asked what he foresees for the economy in the months ahead. His answer: the deferrals that we’ve been working on since the financial shock of Covid-19 will end. Default rates will soar, and values will decline. We’ll be in a serious recession.
The second conversation yesterday was with a real estate baron in New Jersey; a former bond trader at a money center bank. The guy is definitely of the “Mover – Shaker” class. After biz talk—the salient point of which was his gracious (for New Jersey) remark, “Don’t try to make a financial killing on any one deal. Let the next guy make some money too”—I asked him for his political prediction. Without naming names, he said, “the Democrats have royally screwed up their nomination,” and without endorsing the president, added, “Trump’s gonna win.” Then he said, “The next four years are gonna be the worst four years of Trump’s life. The Democrats won’t let up. They’ll pound away at him constantly. Then in 2024 . . .”
At that moment, he had to take another call and left me hanging. I waited impatiently for the rest of his prediction. Three minutes later he apologized for the interruption. “As I was sayin’,” he said, without missing another beat, “in 2024 the Democrats are gonna win by a huge landslide, and ya know who their candidate’s gonna be?”
I dared not guess, but “Bernie” was not in the running. I folded with a lame response. “A progressive?”
“Nope,” said Mover/Shaker. “Michelle Obama.”
Now for my own prediction. Instead of the traditional “October surprise” of presidential election campaigns, we’ll experience a game-changer this summer. Trump will have an incapacitating “health event” and die. An uproar will ensue. Was it Covid-19? Stroke? Heart attack? The cause will be kept under wraps. Rumors will call it dementia related. Democrats will demand an autopsy, which GoebbelsNews and the entire Republican establishment will vehemently resist (The Republican mantra: “Dems won’t stop harassing him even after he’s dead!”). A counter-narrative will then surface: the president was poisoned at Mar-a-Largo.
Just then a CAT 5 hurricane will make landfall at Miami and wreak devastation across the state, tossing the state’s 29 electoral votes into the winds.
Stay tuned.
(Remember to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.)
© 2020 by Eric Nilsson
