AUGUST 18, 2024 – What a difference a month makes; or technically, less than a month. Before Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, Democrats had been in a five-alarm panic over the Debate Debacle. From the flight deck of the campaign, prospects looked grim. The aircraft was losing altitude fast, yet to port and starboard and straight ahead loomed mountains punching into menacing clouds. Four, five seconds more would have robbed crew and passengers of the chance to circle back out of the Valley of Political Death.
Dems agonized over who would assume the pilot’s seat. First Officer Harris? “Ugh!” said many. “Isn’t there a Gavin Newsom or a Wes Moore aboard, riding shotgun back to base who in the present emergency could step forward, replace Captain Biden and save the day?”
“Oh, ye of little faith!” shouted the chorus in the Greek drama. “Take a deep breath and count to three (since that’s the full margin left).” And lo and behold, without missing a beat, Harris took the flight controls, banked hard to the left, then to the right and without the hint of a stall, climbed safely out of the Valley. Shedding their terror, her blue passengers cheered as the skies cleared and the plane soared over the jagged peaks. As sunshine burst through the windows, air traffic control congratulated Harris for her exemplary turnaround skills. With Governor Walz now replacing her in the first officer’s chair, the long runway at NVA is coming into view. A month ago, who could’ve foreseen such promise in such short a time?
Before we unbuckle our seatbelts and start removing our carry-ons from the overhead bins, we must acknowledge that the runway is still miles ahead and thousands of feet below our current altitude. Sudden turbulence, tricky crosswinds and other challenging conditions aren’t yet out of the mix. Harris and Walz still have to land the damn plane before we can safely disembark at Gate D – Blue Concourse. But the odds are infinitely better today than they appeared between June 27 and July 21.
In reality I base my optimism on three data points:
First is the economy. It will hold, don’t worry. Sure, if you examine parts of it, problems leap forth, just as certain corners of the five-star hotel restaurant would yield hygienic exceptions sufficient to chase you straight back to your room to sup on the package of almonds you saved from your flight. The recovery from the recent plung in equities markets was a reminder that not all turbulence signals a course correction. Millions of the most likely voters know that their 401(k)s are way better off today than they were four years ago, even if their eyebrows rise involuntarily at the price tag of a craft beer and grilled chicken sandwich (with enough sweet potato fries for five) at an airport bistro. And surely many voters will notice that the latest price of a dozen eggs at Aldi’s is $1.66, not $16.66 and that the cost of gasoline is on average 40 cents a gallon lower than it was a year ago. Then there are prospective home buyers watching mortgage rates retreat well below this year’s high. With the CPI dropping below 3% and its lowest rate in three years and last month’s job report, the Fed is likely to cut the Fed Funds rate in September, giving an added boost to the housing market , the stock market and overall business and consumer optimism, as the calendar closes in on Election Day. This all bodes well for the Dems, despite the tired hyperbolic refrain of Republicans that the economy is a “disaster.”
Second, is the tailspin of the Republican candidate. He’s been caught flat-footed with pants down around the ankles. The “Crooked Joe Biden”—“Brandon,” to some—punching bag has been removed from contention and replaced by a surprisingly dynamic combination. In his befuddlement, the Duly Defeated has become even more cognitively discombobulated. If his handlers know what the message should be, they are powerless in getting it across to the candidate himself. The very bull-in-the-china-shop modus vivendi that The Base found so charismatic is finally—finally—disrupting the power of the bull’s bully behavior. Ironically, it won’t be a jail sentence that tames the snorting, stomping beast but the simple fact that all the china has now been trashed. There’s nowhere for the bull to go except . . . his pyritic pen, where his facial patina will reflect a fool’s goal.
Third, young people are jazzed. I mean really jazzed, and critically so. This election will not be decided by rants or rhetoric. The outcome will turn on . . . turnout, especially among young people. Several posts ago I mentioned my younger friend Derek who texted, “Every person under 40 I know is absolutely fired up about this ticket.” Yesterday brought a knock on our door by a local college junior wearing a HARRIS/WALZ shirt. She urged us to vote and offered to sign us up on the spot for early mail-in ballots. We took advantage of the offer. Her enthusiasm for the ticket and dedication to the cause of democracy was infectious. The substitution of Harris for Biden had made all the difference to the eager political science major. Not only will she turn out to vote, but she’s motivated enough to knock on doors to rally us in the hood off campus. When she asked if we’d like to volunteer, I jumped at the chance. “Sign me up,” I said. “I want to follow your example and fulfill a civic duty—helping save the republic from internal demise[1].”
As I said above, the plane hasn’t yet landed and parked at the gate. Much could happen that diverts our flight before touch-down. The Middle East could explode. Asian markets could trigger a collapse of financial markets by an all-out cyber-attack on Taiwan by China. Putin’s bots could spread untraceable disinformation and disruption, throwing the election to Russia’s friend. And even if the landing is good, sycophants of the Emperor Without Clothes could hijack the plane to Venezuela and seek asylum inside Maduro’s palace.
But the darker side of my imagination isn’t predictive. My money says we—all of us Americans—are gonna wind up winning. We’ll still have our imponderable problems to address, but at least we will have rescued democracy. Thank you for stepping aside, Captain Joe. You’ve provided a steady hand. Thank you for stepping up, new Captain Kamala and First Officer Tim. And thank you, young people, for jumping on board.
United we’ll keep flying, then land and arrive at Gate D – Blue Concourse of National Victory Airport.
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© 2024 by Eric Nilsson
[1] Even if I don’t agree in lock-step with Harris on every policy point, by far the central issue of this election cycle is democracy itself. In that regard, Harris trumps Trump, the would-be autocrat with no cause, concern or curiosity beyond his petty, myopic, personal interests.
