Original anecdotes, commentary, rumination, and occasional pontification.
NOVEMBER 29, 2024 – Perhaps the soundest investment advice I’ve ever encountered was in an article in the Business Section of a Saturday edition of The Times—years ago when a paper copy was tossed somewhere in our yard, bushes or front basement window wells (the delivery system deteriorated to the point where we were forced …
SEPTEMBER 12, 2024 – To date, Democratic strategist James Carville’s most famous line is “It’s the economy, stupid.” It was directed at workers on the 1992 Clinton campaign, not because Carville believed they were stupid, but because he wanted everyone in the campaign to focus. At campaign headquarters in Little Rock, the insightful and effective …
JUNE 17, 2024 – So far in the 2024 campaign, candidates have made little noise about a major piece of solidly good economic news. News that bodes well for our nation’s future—provided the Duly Defeated doesn’t garner more than 269 electoral votes and, having failed to do so, decides not to re-enact his 2020 version …
DECEMBER 20, 2023 – At the front end of the day I read a report about how Houthi rebel attacks on commercial oil tankers in the Red Sea could disrupt global oil markets. The result of course, would be higher prices for a key commodity (still), thus giving the Fed little breathing space on the …
MAY 17, 2023 – Apart from chronic environmental issues bearing down on the entire planet, the most acute potential crisis facing the world right now is the effect of Congressional failure to raise (or better yet, abolish) the artificial cap on U.S. Government debt. This is one of the dumbest of all wholly avoidable, self-inflicted …
MARCH 13, 2023 – My sincere apologies, Despite a whole litany of noteworthy encounters and experiences in my little world today, I choose to dwell yet again on the dismal science. But hear me—read me—out. Today I received several generic email from investment firms reassuring me that the banking system was sound. Our son who’s …
MARCH 12, 2023 – Sorry, back to the dismal science, because truthfully, I’m fascinated by dismal science and . . . of all the immediate and intermediate things for us good people to worry about, the economy ought to be front and center. If a light breeze now carries our excursion vessel—full lunch buffet included—around …
MARCH 10, 2023 – Today brought unsettling economic news, including the gathering storm clouds around “X Date”—the date when absent legislation increasing the debt ceiling, the federal government runs out of dough to pay its obligations as they come due. By consensus among economists of all stripes, the consequences of Congress not raising the federal …
JULY 23, 2022 – Is “breaking news” making you crazy? Try consuming only “financial journalism.” First, if we were to follow only news reported by financial media—e.g. Bloomberg, Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal—soon half the population would be snoring in la-la land. The calming effect on society would be transformative. Second, the remaining half …
DECEMBER 9, 2021 – Recently I gained some investment guidance and insight into politics when I visited . . . the doctor. After dispensing with medical advice my doc answered a general question about the Omicron variant. He’s highly educated, well-read, well-informed. In both mainstream media and medical literature, he’d read the latest news on …
NOVEMBER 27, 2021 – Yesterday, I sneaked a peek at the latest news headlines—equities markets down hard, along with bond yields, and commodities. The culprit: fears arising from the “omicron” Covid variant now on the loose in South Africa. Just a week ago, we were spooked by the specter of inflation. How fast the apparent …
NOVEMBER 16, 2021 – Doubtless, FoxHound infotainers are excoriating “socialist Democrats” and turncoat Republicans for having passed Biden’s “un-American,” “inflationary” infrastructure legislation “costing the taxpayer” over a trillion bucks. I see it differently. FIRST, it’s not $1.2 trillion. It’s only $550 million of additional money. That’s less than the $678 billion Americans spent on media …
OCTOBER 28, 2021 – I’m not a tax lawyer, but throughout my career I’ve had more than a passing brush with tax law. Currently, I’m working on a protracted deal with lots of “tax angles,” and to my consternation, the tax accountant I work with characterizes these angles as “complicated.” Over the years, I’ve developed …
OCTOBER 4, 2021 – Traditional conservatives are quick to condemn big spending bills as “inflationary. Little sets their hair on fire faster than, “a trillion bucks.” Not all experts, however, think “a trillion bucks” are inflationary. Cathie Wood, whose Ark Investment Management fund has attracted billions of dollars, said recently on Bloomberg Wealth, “I truly …
AUGUST 2, 2021 – On Sunday we—my wife, son Byron, daughter-in-law Mylène, and I—made a Home Depot run in Middletown, CT, followed by a near total buy-out of current inventory at an adjacent Price Chopper grocery store. I was familiar with “Home Depot”; I’d never heard of “Price Chopper” As we grabbed “price-chopped” stuff off …
MAY 12, 2021 – Yesterday I noticed a few doors down, a parked van belonging to a plumbing outfit named, “Weld & Sons.” I couldn’t remember the last time I’d seen a business name that included “Sons” or “Brothers” (or “Bros.”). Back in the day—my day, anyway—you’d see a lot of trucks, stores, and commercial …
MARCH 6, 2021 – PING! I checked my phone—a message on WhatsApp. Since I’m connected with only three people on that Facebook-owned app, by easy deduction I knew the text was from our son Byron. “If you are looking for an interesting documentary [. . .],” it read. “Yes?” I replied “The Social Dilemma[.]” “Netflix?” …
JUNE 16, 2020 – June’s half over. In 15 days, the year will be half over. Time for three prognostications about the rest of 2020. Two are based on business phone conversations I had yesterday; one turns on recent news stories about Trump. The first conversation was with a banker client of mine. He’s in …
MAY 14, 2020 – Paradoxically, one way to distract yourself from The Virus is to read all the lengthy articles on the subject by epidemiologists, statisticians, and the world’s leading conspiracy theorists. Personally, I’ve checked out of the discussions. This wasn’t the case early in The Crisis. I found myself sucked into all sorts of …
APRIL 15, 2020 – Recently, all set to “do our taxes” by the traditional deadline, I realized that thanks to The Virus, the filing deadline is now July 15. Then a client called: what could he do with retail clients who can’t pay rent? (Fortunately, the client’s property isn’t mortgaged.) “Negotiate,” I said, “but condition …
MARCH 28, 2020 – The full financial fallout from Corvid-19 is currently unknowable. What’s foreseeable, however, is a tsunami of mortgage defaults. Depending on when the contagion dissipates, the blowout of real estate values will keep us in a major post-corvid-19 recession. In addition to other pressing concerns of responsible governance, governors and legislators must …
NOVEMBER 3, 3019 – Recently on Facebook I saw a Barron’s post recommending recession-proof stocks. Lots of comments followed, many by “investors” with nasty, hyperbolic attitudes toward Elizabeth Warren. Take this one, for example: Has anybody listened to one word Pocahontas [sic] has said about what she wants to do to our economy? No stock …
SEPTEMBER 4, 2019 – Yesterday I ran into “Charlie.” We used to work at the same bank, where he managed money, and I managed corporate trust accounts. That’s how we met. I still run into Charlie on a regular basis, and every time I get his take on the economy. He’s smart, reads voraciously, and …
SEPTEMBER 1, 2019 – After a two-week hiatus from the news, I dared to take a peek. My glance prompted two thoughts: 1. People’s world views are determined primarily by people’s perceptions of how their bread is buttered; and accordingly, 2. A considerable degree of government regulation is a necessity. “Bread” is financial well-being. “Butter” …
AUGUST 10, 2019 – Today I criticize Republicans’ defense of corporate America. My target: money, money, and . . . money. There’s nothing inherently wrong with money. It’s simply a medium of exchange. However, the American corporate obsession with short term money (profitability) and money in politics undermines our future. First, take executive compensation. For some time, …