FEBRUARY 13, 2020 – Tuesday evening, pundits proclaimed the significance of Sander’s “win” in New Hampshire. Millennials shouted while Wall Street shuttered. I was skeptical. He “won” with only 26% of the vote (vs. 60% in 2016). Even if Warren’s poor showing were assigned to Sanders, the total centrist vote Tuesday formed a substantial majority. Yet Sanders has a giant war chest, and his “base” is as committed to him and his agenda as Trump’s base is committed to their man and nonsense.
So, let’s imagine Bernie wins the nomination and defeats Trump. What then?
First, Bernie’s exuberant supporters (pardon the redundancy), would be ecstatic. “Tax the rich and give all to us the people! With the wave of an angry man’s index finger, 250 years of economic injustice would be willed away.”
But after inauguration, momentum would slow abruptly. A Bernie victory over Trump wouldn’t extinguish polarization, which will govern American political culture for the foreseeable future. Raucous, Millennial enthusiasm for Bernie will be matched by fear and disdain among people imbibing at the trough of FoxGoebbels. Moreover, even if Trump loses the electoral vote, Republicans will likely hold the Senate—given that only a third of the Senate is up for re-election each cycle and that less populous, conservative states have disproportionate representation.
That spells deadlock. Sure, Bernie could reverse Trump’s executive orders and behave like an adult on the international stage. But Bernie is defined by his progressive economic agenda, and that will require extensive legislation. Congress remains the legislative branch, and legislation takes two to tango—House and Senate. Mitch McConnell will continue to stop everything passed by the House and . . . block all liberal judicial appointees.
Bernie could scowl and browbeat. His supporters could shout and swear. Without heavy compromise, however, they’d get nowhere with their compelling agenda, and as we’ve seen, Bernie and crowd spell compromise, a-n-a-t-h-e-m-a. That spelling is at the core of his appeal.
As to Bernie’s age . . . if Republicans retain the Senate in the 2020 election, Bernie’s agenda would have to wait until the 2022 mid-term election, when he’d be 80. Given the progressive intensity of his agenda, even if Democrats won majorities in House and Senate, such control would unlikely be a progressive one. Time—and compromise—would still be required to pass major legislation in areas of healthcare and wealth re-distribution. If a second term were necessary to see the project through, Bernie would be running for re-election when he’s 82. He’d be 86 by the end of that term. At those ages a lot more than one’s heart can decline, particularly under the stress of the most demanding job in the world.
Without oxygen, a “Bernie Burn” would flare on Inauguration Day, then flicker and soon die of its own accord. Wall Street would have yet another rally before the amassing corporate debt bubble bursts in early 2021.
I admire the exuberance and idealism of youth, but high expectations can cause great pain when they fall on the unforgiving ground of reality.
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© 2020 by Eric Nilsson
